In this article, we’ll talk about how Pakistan could feel the effects of India’s decision to pause the Indus Waters Treaty. We’ll look at the economy, farming, power, health, law, and what Pakistan can do next. Everything is in simple language, so you can follow along easily.
Introduction & Context
After the Pahalgam attack in April 2025, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security decided to pause the Indus Waters Treaty. This treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, governs water-sharing from six rivers: the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej (eastern rivers) and the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab (western rivers).
By pausing the treaty, India effectively halted routine water releases on the western rivers shared with Pakistan. These rivers irrigate most of Pakistan’s farmland, power hydropower stations and supply drinking water to major cities. Cutting or delaying these flows can affect agriculture, industry and daily life.
Let’s break down the real-world effects on Pakistan.
Economic Growth Under Threat
Potential Drop in Economic Activity
Pakistan’s economy relies heavily on agriculture and industry connected to Indus-basin water. If river flows are reduced, irrigated areas shrink and factories face water shortages. Analysts warn this could slow growth by reducing farm output and industrial production.
Rising Prices and Inflation
Lower crop yields can force Pakistan to import more food, increasing costs. Food items like wheat and sugar account for a large share of household spending. Higher import bills and supply constraints may push overall inflation higher.
Impact on Trade
Textile and food-product exports depend on reliable inputs. Water shortages in factories and processing plants can delay orders and reduce export volumes, potentially weakening Pakistan’s trade balance.
Agricultural & Food-Security Fallout
Irrigation Cuts Hurt Key Crops
The Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers irrigate roughly 90% of Pakistan’s cropland in Punjab and Sindh provinces. Reductions in water releases can stall wheat, cotton and sugarcane crops, which together account for most of Pakistan’s agricultural output.
Household Impact
If staple crops suffer, households face smaller harvests and higher food bills. Rural farmers may see income drop sharply, while urban consumers pay more at the market.
Short-Term Fixes
- Groundwater pumping: Drilling additional boreholes can supply some irrigation, but it depletes aquifers.
- Rainwater harvesting: Capturing monsoon rains helps bridge gaps, though storage capacity is limited.
- Drip irrigation: Using water efficiently at the root level can stretch supplies but requires investment.
Hydropower & Energy Blackouts
Hydropower Generation Falls
About 30% of Pakistan’s electricity comes from hydropower plants on the western rivers. Reduced river flows lower water levels in reservoirs, cutting generation capacity.
Electricity Shortages
Less hydropower can lead to scheduled outages or ‘load shedding’. Industrial zones, hospitals and homes may face power cuts, disrupting daily life and business operations.
Government Response
- Fuel imports: Pakistan may increase oil and gas imports to fuel thermal power plants, raising energy costs.
- Renewable push: Subsidies for solar and wind projects can partially offset hydropower losses.
- Demand management: Scheduled power rationing helps balance supply but inconveniences users.
Public Health, Urban Supply & Social Stability
City Water Supply Takes a Hit
Major cities like Lahore and Karachi draw part of their drinking water from Indus-basin projects. Reduced releases can shorten supply hours or lower pressure, requiring alternate sources.
Sanitation and Health Risks
Insufficient water affects hygiene and sanitation services. Outbreaks of waterborne illnesses like diarrhea and cholera become more likely when safe water is scarce.
Population Moves
Rural water shortages may push families toward cities, straining urban infrastructure. Rapid influxes can heighten competition for jobs, housing and water, risking social friction.
Immediate Measures
- Water tankers: Municipal authorities deploy tankers for emergency delivery.
- Filtration kiosks: Community water filtration points ensure safe drinking water.
- Conservation campaigns: Public education encourages saving water at home.
Pakistan’s Legal & Diplomatic Playbook
Treaty Dispute Mechanisms
Under the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan can:
- Request meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission.
- Initiate a Court of Arbitration under World Bank rules if talks stall.
- Appeal to the International Court of Justice if arbitration is inconclusive.
Past Cases
Previous disputes—such as over India’s Kishanganga hydropower project—have gone to arbitration and been resolved over several years, restoring regulated flows with technical safeguards.
Broader Diplomacy
Pakistan can also:
- Lodge a complaint at the UN Security Council to seek international pressure.
- Use SAARC or OIC forums to rally regional support.
- Engage global media and NGOs to highlight humanitarian impacts.
Legal processes take time, so Pakistan must address urgent needs at home while pursuing these channels.
Conclusion: Why This Was the Right Step for India
India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty sends a long-overdue and firm message. For over six decades, India honored a treaty that gave Pakistan a generous share of river waters, despite facing continued hostility, terrorism, and cross-border attacks.
The recent Pahalgam attack was a brutal reminder that patience has limits. Suspending the treaty is not just a technical move—it’s a sovereign response to unprovoked violence.
From an Indian perspective, this is about putting our nation and our people first. It’s about signaling to the world that India won’t remain silent while its citizens are targeted.
If Pakistan suffers economically or socially, it is the result of decades of poor priorities and hostile policies. Maybe now, faced with real consequences, Pakistan will have to choose between terror and development.
For Indians, this is a moment to unite, support our government’s firm decisions, and honor the memories of those we’ve lost. Our water, our security, and our peace can no longer be compromised.
This was not revenge. It was responsibility.
Jai Hind.
